Ed Guyette drags swimbaits around Lake Casitas in March for big bass like this 10-pounder. But live crawdads will get the same result as those $50 lures. Photo by Chris Shaffer

When you’re talking about Southern California largemouth bass, a lot of water goes a long way

Lake Casitas experienced that first-hand in 2004. Unexpected deluges in October, November and December raised the lake’s level from near-drought stage to full pool.

Before that massive influx, low water levels led to less forage, diminished structure and increased fishing pressure. Stress was mounting on Casitas’ bass, and the lake’s reputation was at stake. But as the lake rose, nutrients flooded it. Cover reappeared, and the reservoir’s bass population upheld its stardom.

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Anglers are still seeing the effects of that turnaround. That bodes well if you’re looking for lunkers this spring.

"The high water is going to mean there should be more forage for the bass, so they should have no problem maintaining weight or actually gaining weight," says Mike Giusti, a fisheries biologist for the California Department of Fish and Game.

Giusti believes that the high water that arrived in 2004 will have a positive long-term effect on Casitas’ bass. Consider this: The high water arrived in late fall and early winter. In the spring, when bass spawn, the reservoir was at or near full-pool. Therefore, the large females for which Casitas is well known had great spawning grounds -- and completed one of the most successful spawns since El Nino raised the lake to full pool in 1998.

"We should have had significantly greater spawning success, and you should have higher growth rates with all the nutrients that were flushed into the lake," Giusti added. "I think what it’s going to mean is there is going to be a lot more spawning bass this year than there have been the last few years."

Most anglers don’t remember that in the spring of 2005, Lake Casitas’ water clarity was so poor that sight-fishing was nearly impossible. For the first time in decades, that allowed the bass to live through a successful spawn without being harassed by dozens of anglers every day. Giusti believes the young-of-the-year from 2005 -- who will participate in their first spawn this spring -- could be the best year-class of bass at Casitas in decades.

"The fish born three years ago are going to be able to spawn now, so there’s going to be that many more fish on beds," said Giusti, who believes those bass should now be 12 to 15 inches. "So sight-fishing could be very good this year. It’s not uncommon to see a year-class dominate a fishery for five or six years, and I think that the fish born in 2005 could do that."

On the other hand, this also means that Casitas will offer anglers many more small bass than in the last several years. Expect to catch greater numbers of 12- to 15-inch bass. Hands down, you’ll catch a ton of them.

"Guys may have to go through up to 30 fish to get a better-quality fish," Giusti added.